VAT Refund BI Dashboard

Cash flow vs refund delay

Scatter by sector · β = −10.39 · r = −0.723 · p < 0.001

Average cash flow by sector

Mean operating cash flow (mln UZS)

Refund delay by sector and year

Average processing days

VAT refunds vs negative balances

Macro trend 2020–2024 (bln UZS)

🎯 What-if Analysis — Liquidity Stress Test Decision Support

Simulate how changes in VAT refund processing time affect enterprise liquidity. Move the sliders to model different scenarios.

VAT Refund Processing Time 62 days

15 days (best)120 days (worst)

Annual Turnover 4,821 mln UZS

500 (small)15,000 (large)

Sector

🟢 Green Zone — Low Risk

Predicted Cash Flow−112.5 mln UZS

Predicted Current Ratio1.42

Quick Ratio (est.)1.16

Frozen VAT / Cash Flow18.3%

Risk Score0.21

Regression formula applied:
Cash Flow = 207.34 − 10.39 × Days + 0.031 × Turnover

Risk classification:
🟢 Green: delay < 45 days, CF > 0
🟡 Amber: delay 45–75 days, CF −100 to 0
🔴 Red: delay > 75 days, CF < −100 mln

Policy insight:
Each +10 days delay → −103.9 mln UZS cash flow impact

Lag effect (Section 4.6.4):
Maximum liquidity shock occurs at t+1:
β(t) = −10.39 · β(t−1) = −12.14 · β(t−2) = −8.73

VAT Refund BI Dashboard — Uzbekistan